Tax, economy, small boats and potentially Donald Trump's re-election bid will help Rishi Sunak settle his biggest question - when to go to the polls
Tax, economy, small boats and potentially Donald Trump’s re-election bid will help Rishi Sunak settle his biggest question – when to go to the pollsWhen you are Prime Minister, every word you say or endorse is pored over for hints of a policy shift here or a political position there.
And despite those senior sources suggesting all options remain on the table, Tory insiders believe Mr Sunak is still most likely to plump for an autumn 2024 poll in defiance of voters’ preference. The MP also said that prime ministers tend to care more about “their own longevity” and “hanging on” than potentially securing a less damaging defeat by going early.
But Mr Sunak may be “spooked” about calling a snap early election as he is more likely to be blamed personally if the Tories lose.presents a reasonable case to say if we go in spring we’ve got the best chance of winning then they will do it, but I don’t think that’s going to happen,” the insider said.
But there are advantages to going in spring so that the Tories do not have to fight local and national elections at different times of the year,“You don’t have the demotivating effect of losing seats in May only to try and get people to resuscitate their efforts in October,” Lord Hayward said.seats, that the level of small boats crossings will be smaller, whereas if you go in autumn it will be in the peak crossing season.
January 2025 is however seen as very unlikely, due to the difficulties of campaigning in the cold and dark over Christmas, and the demotivating effect the timing could have on voters.
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