How much weight should we put on predictions from the Office for Budget Responsibility and other experts?
was accompanied by an assessment of his measures by the Office for Budget Responsibility - the independent spending watchdog which makes forecasts about the UK economy.
Those targets, set by the government rather than the OBR, are about how spending will look in three or five years' time.The OBR was set up in 2010 by then-Chancellor George Osborne to take the job of marking the government's Budget-day homework out of the Treasury, a government department. The chart also shows that actual growth figures have been pretty evenly split between beating OBR expectations and undershooting them .The OBR's forecasts for longer-term growth have often turned out to be too positive, largely because the OBR assumed that we would keep getting more productive in the same way we had before the financial crash of 2008. That has not happened.
If the government says "we'll raise fuel duty next year" or "furlough will end in October", other forecasters can take account of the possibility those plans might change. The OBR cannot.
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