China’s slowing growth and accelerating demographic decline have cast new doubt on its economic destiny
By Simon Cox: China economics editor, The Economist, Hong Kongis full of short-term predictions, peeking over the fence into the year ahead. China’s rulers are more daring. They gaze into the distant future, making pronouncements about their country’s trajectory decades ahead, rather than just a year.GDP
These projections are bold because they can go dramatically wrong—even when they are made by powerful leaders with some influence over how things turn out. Deng himself was scathing about Nikita Khrushchev’s boast in 1961 that “according to scientific calculations” the Soviet Union would essentially finish building communism by 1980, providing its people with a living standard far surpassing that enjoyed by America’s workers.
A third vulnerability is China’s faltering homebuilders. They sold over 1.56bn square metres of new housing in 2021, the equivalent of flogging the entire housing stock of Manhattan 12 times over in a single year. Many economists think that figure marks the peak of China’s property market. Indeed, the population is peaking earlier than expected. China was supposed to have a population of 1.51bn by now, according tonow thinks that China’s working-age population could decline by 10% by 2035 and by almost 30% by 2050, relative to its current level.
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