'Hopes of eliminating COVID-19 in the U.S. through vaccine-generated herd immunity are now dashed,' writes Steven Phillips. 'We need to focus on 2022 as the year that in the U.S. will usher in a new era of 'living with the virus''
and extensive economic, mental health and educational damage. With Omicron this toll will increase further, but with the projected near universal infection of the unvaccinated, its health impact will be increasingly blunted.
Forecasting COVID-19 is a fraught endeavor. Complex multidisciplinary science must be merged with a multitude of social, psychological, political and cultural forces. Evolving information, uncertainty and debate require ongoing testing and reassessment of forecasts. in most U.S. geographies that have high levels of vaccine and natural immunity and where vulnerable populations are protected., going forward it will be increasingly recognized that cases—as defined by positive tests—will generally not serve as a useful metric upon which to base public health decisions.
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