To mark the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion, Russia is reportedly introducing new troops to the battlefield and launching new offenses
However, Russia still seems to be holding back forces, says Philip Wasielewski, a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia program. “They have spare capability. And I don’t think we’ve seen the biggest push yet,” he said.A local resident carries humanitarian aid while walking through a nearly deserted downtown area on Feb. 14 in Bakhmut, Ukraine.Russia likely doesn’t have enough time to accomplish its short-term goal of capturing Donetsk and Luhansk, says Stepanenko.
Another problem, says Wasielewski, is that Russian troops aren’t adequately prepared for the attack. “If Russia decides to launch a major offensive, or offensives, with these poorly trained, poorly led and poorly equipped soldiers with limited artillery support …it runs a risk of high casualties, a loss of control, and units retreating or breaking apart.”
Russia’s willingness to treat troops as if they’re disposable is sometimes described as an advantage, as it allows Russian leaders to carry on despite major losses. But the strategy can come at a cost, Stepanenko says, especially if Ukraine were to set up a counterattack in the coming months, leaving a depleted Russian military to defend its positions.
But even small gains could pose a threat to Ukrainian forces, warns Stepanenko. “Any ground Russia captures is still ground they can use for future offensive operations.”
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