Experts say it would primarily be a diplomatic signaling of a counter-alliance in the Indo-Pacific to the recently revitalized U.S.-South Korea-Japan partnership.
Should looping in North Korea in joint China-Russia military exercises happen, observers say the risks to neighboring states would be minimal, as a trilateral naval drill would be less a preparation for war and more just a diplomatic signaling of a counter-alliance in the Indo-Pacific. “I see this as more a coming together of states, particularly North Korea and Russia, that have a dwindling circle of friends,” Loo says.
A potential naval exercise between China, Russia, and North Korea would move one step closer towards the establishment of a formal united front against the U.S. and its allies. But despite the world being seemingly split into two factions with this possible counter-alliance, experts say it could actually have a stabilizing effect by creating a check on each of its parties from instigating conflict unilaterally.
Russia and China, for example, are partly aligned on the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, so they may not support North Korea’s continued threats to use its nuclear arsenal. “While North Korea is obviously a partner, due to the convergence of their strategic interests, I don't think there is a convergence in terms of what they think North Korea should do,” says Collin Koh, another senior fellow specializing in Asia-Pacific naval affairs at the S.
But while experts agree that the threat of a great power is not likely to increase even if this new trilateral alliance were to be realized, it could still have a significant impact on the region by further forcing smaller states in the region, who have long abided by principles of non-alignment, to pick a side.
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