Using traveler arrival COVID-19 screening data for real-time SARS-CoV-2 surveillance medrxivpreprint LSHTM SARSCoV2 COVID19 Screening Testing
By Neha MathurOct 18 2022Reviewed by Aimee Molineux In a recent study posted to the medRxiv* preprint server, researchers developed a model to reconstruct the estimates of how many travelers would have tested severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 -positive at the country of departure. They used data from French Polynesia, where they maintained SARS-CoV-2 screening at airport arrivals in a systematic manner.
About the study In the present study, researchers used data from over 220,000 COVID-19 tests performed on travelers arriving in French Polynesia between July 2020 and March 2022 to estimate SARS-CoV-2 prevalence at airport departures of multiple countries. The researchers also assessed whether arrival screening could reliably estimate international SARS-CoV-2 dynamics. To this end, they converted SARS-CoV-2 prevalence at departure, reflecting current positivity into an estimate of new daily infections. Further, they compared cumulative SARS-CoV-2 incidence over this time as repeated serological surveys in France and the USA.
Adjusting for traveler testing protocols, the study model estimated a peak infection prevalence at the departure in France and the US in late 2020/early 2021 at 2.8% and 1.1%, respectively. Omicron BA.1 wave caused 5.4% and 5.5% SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in France and the US in early 2022, respectively. In France, the estimate of cumulative COVID-19 incidence in late 2020 was slightly larger than shown by serological studies. There are multiple explanations for the observed discrepancies.
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