Earth has been wet and temperate for most of the 4.5bn years it has existed. But new research shows that its luck could run out
released can increase the planet’s temperature by 10-15°C.
In the long term, that is a blip. But Drs Ernst, Way and Scargle wondered what would happen if two or morewould serve only to make things hotter than a single one, before they then returned to normal. A triple, however, or even a double one that occurred during a period with an already-hot climate, would raise the temperature past a tipping point. All surface water would evaporate—and water vapour is, itself, a greenhouse gas, so this would raise the temperature even further.
With no rain, no rivers and no oceans, there would be no erosion of rocks—a process that allows them to react with and sequester atmospheric CO. Plate tectonics would also grind to a halt, for it depends on the rocks of the ocean floor being waterlogged, and therefore heavy enough to sink into the underlying mantle. This buries carbon fixed in those rocks for aeons. If that no longer happened Earth, like Venus, would remain hot and dry indefinitely.
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