How luck is determined in baseball can be done in multiple ways, and could inform front offices on their team's year-over-year volatility.
have once again been the healthiest team in ball and it hasn’t been enough to push their results past their true talent abilities.
We started this looking for the luckiest teams in baseball, and it looks like it’s some combination of the Orioles, Brewers and Reds, perhaps. Maybe their leadership saw some of this and that made them a little bit more conservative at the trade deadline, or maybe not.
And the Guardians and the Yankees may end up being the most interesting teams in this look at luck. The Yankees are old and got hurt a bunch, and it’s easy to blame those factors for their poor season despite strong projections. But the Guardians are young and athletic and have a pretty good bullpen — and still underproduced versus their projections, got unlucky on balls in play, and came up a couple of wins short of their Pythagorean record, too.
Do both of these teams need full overhauls, or do they need to do the work of getting better, getting younger where it makes sense, improving the bullpen, and hoping some of these luck indicators flip to the other side next season? See? Discussing luck is not all bad. Sometimes, it can be hopeful.Get all-access to exclusive stories.
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