SSPH+ | The Real-World Impact of Vaccination on COVID-19 Cases During Europe’s Fourth Wave

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SSPH+ | The Real-World Impact of Vaccination on COVID-19 Cases During Europe’s Fourth Wave
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Full vaccination more effective than boosters in preventing spread of COVID-19 uclnews

shows the strength with which full vaccination predicted fewer COVID-19 case rates over time. The effect of vaccines on case rates remained steady until the detection of the Omicron variant in Europe, after which point the level of protection steadily diminished.

shows that booster vaccines did not reduce COVID-19 case rates at any point in time, with confidence intervals narrowing over time but including zero throughout.A small increase in full vaccination coverage prevented many COVID-19 cases during the first 3 months of the fourth wave of infections across Europe. This protective effect decreased over time but remained significant up to 5 weeks after the Omicron variant was first detected in Europe.

Our real-world estimates show large decreases in case rates, for small increases in full vaccination. Previous studies comparing rates of disease between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups are typically unable to capture the population transmission or herd effects of vaccination, in addition to the benefit in preventing symptomatic disease.

Data on the effectiveness of vaccines against Omicron is limited. A recent UK test negative case-control pre-print study with 581 symptomatic Omicron cases found that full vaccination with the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine did not protect against symptomatic disease, but full vaccination with the Pfizer vaccine provided a 34%–37% reduction in risk, after 15 weeks []. Vaccine effectiveness increased to 71.4% and 75.

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