The fear in Westminster is Nicola Sturgeon will use the decision to block the bill as a powerful argument for independence. Scottish Secretary Alister Jack is due to introduce a section 35 order at the UK parliament today, preventing the bill getting royal assent.
UK government officials are confident a majority of Scots are on their side. Private government polling suggests 52% of 2019 SNP voters back the move - and that figure is significantly higher when considering the whole electorate.
Last night's carefully-worded statement from the Scottish secretary is evidence that he realises the sensitivity of this issue.Alister Jack said that transgender people"deserve our respect, support and understanding", that he has"not taken this decision lightly" and that he will be"constructive" if the Scottish government put forward an amended bill.
Nonetheless, the move is unprecedented: a 'section 35 order' has never before been issued in the 25-year history of devolution. The wider concern in Whitehall is that Nicola Sturgeon's government will use this decision as evidence that Scottish democracy is broken and as a powerful argument to bolster the case for independence.
For Rishi Sunak, a prime minister keen to de-escalate and de-dramatise Scotland's constitutional debate, this move is likely to do the opposite.
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