Saudi Arabia’s production cuts are gradually moving into their third month of existence, creating a level of backwardation that the oil markets hasn't seen in a long time
, however, the market at large has kept surprisingly mum about the key factor in the price rally of July-August, namely Saudi Arabia’s voluntary production cuts. Happening at a time of strong demand and low inventories, the output curbs sent backwardation spiraling again so that the Dubai cash-to-futures spread is back to $2 per barrel, all the while providing constant support for refining margins around the world.
Chart 2. Formula prices of cargoes bound for Northwest Europe by selected grades . Source: Saudi Aramco. Unconstrained by production cuts yet limited by the weakness of light sweet grades globally, ADNOC, the national oil company of the United Arab Emirates, has been dispersing its attention at many things at once.
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