Russian military lines appear to have collapsed in places. Ukraine’s goal of reconquering all of its lost territory no longer looks so implausible
to defend the homeland, the annexations were intended to extend Russia’s nuclear umbrella to occupied territory. Yet even as they took place, Ukrainian forces were advancing into regions Russia now claims as native ground. If anything, this has reduced the credibility of Russia’s nuclear threats. But rendering Russia’s red lines vague also makes the possibility of an accidental nuclear exchange more likely.
“There was a split in the EU between countries following the American-British line that Ukraine must simply win, and those following the Paris-Berlin line that it was important not to humiliate Russia and that the war would end in negotiations,” says Bob Deen of the Clingendael Institute, a Dutch think-tank. Many quietly assumed that Ukraine was unlikely to regain Crimea militarily, and might ultimately accept its annexation by Russia as part of a peace deal.
According to international law, all of Russia’s annexations are equally illegitimate. In territorial disputes at the International Court of Justice , the most important justifications claimed by countries revolve around existing treaties, effective control over territory or the doctrine of, which holds that old administrative boundaries should become borders when territories achieve independence.
Only a few countries have recognised the annexation of Crimea, mainly long-standing Russian clients such as Nicaragua and Syria. Yet from 2014 to 2022 the West’s reaction was limited to relatively modest sanctions, in part because some governments quietly gave a measure of credence to Russia’s claims. Privately, European diplomats often noted that Crimea, which enjoyed autonomous status within Ukraine, had a long history of Russian rule and a mainly ethnic-Russian population.
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