In the past, changes in energy prices have had a small effect on deaths. But this year’s cost increases are remarkably large. We built a statistical model to assess the effect this price shock might have
Within countries, more people die in colder winters. But when comparing countries to each other, winter deaths rise more in warm places than in cold ones
The final element, however, is much less certain: the relationship between energy costs and deaths. We estimate this using our statistical model, which predicts how many people die in each winter week in each of 226 European regions. The model applies to the-27 countries, except Malta, plus Britain, Norway and Switzerland.
In recent decades consumer energy prices have had only a modest impact on winter mortality, because they have oscillated within a fairly narrow band. In a typical European country, holding other factors constant, increasing the electricity price from its lowest level in 2000-19 to its highest raises the model’s estimate of weekly death rates by just 3%. In contrast, reducing the temperature from the highest level in that period to the lowest increases them by 12%.
Two other variables absent from long-run data could also affect death rates this year. Many countries have introduced or expanded cash-transfer schemes to help people pay energy bills, which should reduce deaths below the model’s expectations to some degree. And covid-19 could either raise mortality—by making it even more perilous to shiver through cold weather—or lower it, because the virus has already killed many of the old, frail people who are most vulnerable to the cold.
Danmark Seneste Nyt, Danmark Overskrifter
Similar News:Du kan også læse nyheder, der ligner denne, som vi har indsamlet fra andre nyhedskilder.
Ukraine war latest: Putin's tactic 'blunted' by supplies shortfall - as Russia responds to EU tribunal planVladimir Putin's tactic of hitting critical infrastructure to knock out power in Ukraine during winter is being hampered by a lack of missiles, the MoD says; listen to the Daily podcast while you scroll, with Deborah Haynes describing life in Ukraine with constant blackouts.
Læs mere »
Ukraine war: Kyiv displays dud nuclear-capable missile fired by RussiaKyiv says the missiles were fired with non-explosive warheads to deplete Ukrainian air defences.
Læs mere »
Russians visit H&M for the last time as stores close for goodShoppers in Russia have bought clothes in H&M for the last time today before the brand closes permanently in the country amid the war in Ukraine.
Læs mere »
Russian Upstream Oil And Gas Investment Set To Plunge By $15 Billion | OilPrice.comA 'multi-year slump' in Russian upstream oil and gas investment appears to have begun, with 2022 investment set to plunge by $15 billion according to Rystad Energy.
Læs mere »