He’s still worth $500 million, if not more. Shohei Ohtani has a torn ulnar collateral ligament (UCL), but remains the best hitter in the game. He will be a free agent at 29, two years younger than Aaron Judge was entering the open market. The Yankees gave Judge a nine-year, $360 million contract, and there was no possibility he could pitch. There still is with Ohtani. Even if Ohtani requires a second Tommy John surgery and cannot pitch in 2024, the best guess is he will return to the mound. In his six major-league seasons, he has defied every prediction, every expectation, repeatedly...
. Soto was 23 then, with two years of arbitration remaining, so the comparison to Ohtani is not apples and oranges. If anything, Soto was an even more dominant hitter at that point than Ohtani is now, coming off a 2021 season in which his OPS+ was 117 percent above league average. Ohtani this season is 83 percent above.
Soto turned down the Nationals’ offer because only one team was bidding; he wanted to establish his value as a 26-year-old free agent, available to every team. His value has since fallen. His OPS+ since joining the Padres is a mere 47 percent above league average. But the initial thought was Soto would get at least $500 million in free agency, maybe $600 million. And he still might.
Ohtani’s ceiling before his latest elbow injury was not as clear. Almost anything seemed possible. But in truth, his future as a pitcher was always uncertain. Would he pitch two more years? Four more? Six? It’s doubtful any team envisioned him competing for a Cy Young Award in every season of a long-term contract.
Wednesday’s distressing news will bring a certain sobriety to Ohtani’s free-agent process that might have been lacking otherwise. Teams cannot pay him as a two-way superstar when his future dominance as a pitcher is much more in question. But they still can pay him for who he is virtually certain to remain, one of the sport’s top offensive players. That’s worth $500 million. At least that.Subscribe to The Athletic for in-depth coverage of your favorite players, teams, leagues and clubs.
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