Risk of nuclear attack is small but very, very real, superforecasters predict 🔴 The best forecasters in the world think that the chance of a nuclear bomb being used in Europe is alarmingly high 🔍 Analysis from TomChivers
And as a result, the world is growing nervous about what a humiliated Vladimir Putin, under pressure at home and facing challenges to his power, will do. Russia has justinto the centre of Kyiv and other cities, causing dozens of civilian casualties.
. Swift gathers a group of well-calibrated forecasters and asks them to make predictions about future events.asked them to look at the probability of a nuclear attack, and how that might change given various plausible events.be detonated in Europe as an act of hostility before the 30 April, 2023? The median average answer was 9 per cent, but there was wide variation: one thought the true figure was 20 per cent.
The forecasters were asked questions like how likely it is that towns such as Severodonetsk or Mariupol will be liberated from Russian control, or if Ukrainian forces hold any territory in Crimea, before 1 April next year – and, if they are, what that does to the nuclear threat in the month that follows., was fairly unlikely to fall from Russian hands .
The forecasters thought it was very unlikely that any Nato country would end up putting uniformed combat troops on the ground in Ukraine – the median estimate was 0.8 per cent. If they do, they said, it’s likely because something dreadful has already happened – such as the use of a nuclear weapon. The chance of a– the median forecast was 2 per cent – for similar reasons.
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