Wage growth is now higher than inflation and could see the State Pension rise by nearly 8% next year.
The Triple Lock guarantee will determine the level of uprating to be applied to the State Pension for the 2024/25 financial year and pays the highest between September’s Consumer Price Index inflation rate, earnings growth, or 2.5 per cent.
A decline in gas and electricity prices was the biggest contributor to the fall in CPI inflation, while food prices continued to rise, but by less than a year earlier. Ms O’Connor said: “It now looks likely that the State Pension could rise in line with earnings rather than inflation next April, as the Triple Lock dictates that it increases with whichever is the highest of earnings, inflation or 2.5 per cent. As scrutiny increases on the cost of the State Pension to the public purse, the UK Government will be under pressure to break or at least adjust the triple lock.
The latest expenditure figures from the Department for Work and Pensions show that the State Pension cost the UK Government an estimated £112.5 billion to deliver in 2022/23 and is forecast to rise to £139.5bn in 2027/28. “Greater price stability will be particularly welcomed by those planning retirement, who may feel more secure about their future retirement income, in a more stable economic environment.”
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