In January, for the first time, all of the seven most populous countries will have left-of-centre governments. But a swing to the right is about to begin, and it may prove more profound
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskLook more closely, however, and there are reasons to believe that a swing to the right is about to begin, and it may prove more profound. For a start, the main trend in recent elections has been anti-incumbency: an opponent of some kind or other has won the past 16 free presidential contests in the region.
And despite the prevailing discontent with incumbents, some of the left’s victories have been narrow. Lula won by just 1.8 percentage points against, the right-wing populist president, whose record on the pandemic was disastrous. In Colombia this year Gustavo Petro, a leftist, won by three percentage points against Rodolfo Hernández, an eccentric outsider. Both victors were mistrusted by many voters.
There may be several reasons for this. One is a rise in support for conservative values of religion, family and. “Religiosity probably hasn’t increased but it probably has become a more important factor in how people vote,” says Noam Lupu of. Another, says Esther Solano of the University of São Paulo, is a fear of falling in the social order. This is marked among members of the fragile new lower-middle class, who see themselves as self-made and favour economic freedom.
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