Republicans’ gains came disproportionately in right-leaning districts that they already held, our analysis reveals. The party faltered in would-be pickups
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskThat Republicans lagged behind expectations will not have surprised this newspaper’s most devoted readers. Our forecasting model for the midterms changed little between its launch date in early September and election day. And when we ran it post hoc for earlier dates, it foresaw the underperformance as early as July.
Finally, there are factors specific to the candidates themselves. Take the results in Colorado’s 3rd district. There Lauren Boebert, who was both endorsed by Mr Trump and a devotee of his election conspiracies, has won re-election by a razor-thin margin of just 0.3 percentage points. That is despite the fact her seat went for Mr Trump by over eight points in 2020.
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