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After a top-four finish and cup final win, there was little pre-season worries for Manchester United and their ability to kick-on under Erik ten Hag. Well, perhaps the evidence for a potential regression was there staring us in the face all along in the form of their overperformance when assessing last season's performance data. When calculating quality of chances created and conceded, morphed into expected points the results had them overperforming by almost 13 points on the formula.
So, without an obvious improvement to the quality of their first XI and some key players who could be on the downgrade due to their age, there is a strong possibility United are completely overrated when it comes to the market assessing their chances. That was certainly the case at Tottenham last weekend, where they went off favourites but were beaten fair and square.
Ten Hag may find a solution such is his ruthlessness and problem solving skills, but until I see evidence of this improvement, laying United at their current prices should be a profitable strategy. You can back Forest here to win or draw at 5/2 with Sky Bet which seems a sensible play.
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