A team of researchers at the University of Oxford, led by the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, have developed a new model that reliably predicts a woman's likelihood of developing and then dying of breast cancer within a decade.
, analyzed anonymized data from 11.6 million women aged 20–90 from 2000 to 2020. All of these women had no prior history of breast cancer, or the precancerous condition called"ductal carcinoma in situ," or DCIS.
"Risk-based screening" aims to personalize screening based on an individual's risk, to maximize the benefits and minimize the downsides of such screening. Tailoring screening programs on the basis of individual risks was recently highlighted as an avenue for further improvement in screening strategy by Prof Chris Whitty.
The new model developed by the team works to predict a woman's 10-year combined risk of developing and then dying from breast cancer. Identifying women at the highest risk of deadly cancers could improve screening. These women could be invited to start screening earlier, be invited for more frequent screenings, or be screened with different types of imaging.
Professor Julia Hippisley-Cox, Professor of General Practice and Epidemiology and senior author from the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences at the University of Oxford, said,"This is an important new study which potentially offers a new approach to screening. Risk-based strategies could offer a better balance of benefits and harms in, enabling more personalized information for women to help improve decision making.
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