The death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini sparked an uprising in Iran. In 2023, expect one of two very different scenarios to play out across the country WorldAhead
By Nicolas Pelham: Middle East correspondent, The Economistfantasists and there are doomsayers. For the first group, regime change is in the offing. Ahead of the Nowruz spring festival on March 20th 2023, they imagine, Iranians will converge on Tehran’s airport to welcome home a planeload of exiled dissidents, including Masih Alinejad, the female campaigner who championed abolition of the mandatory hijab, and Ali Karimi, a popular footballer.
The regime’s former foreign minister, Javad Zarif, will remain as a caretaker president after Ebrahim Raisi steps down, in a bid to ensure a smooth transition. He will curry favour abroad by stacking his government with exiles boasting doctorates from Western universities.
Iranians, though, will be less forgiving. Many will want no truck with apologists from the old regime. “For trial,” they will chant, as protesters continue to mass in the street. Some who tried to negotiate with the reformers, including Mohammad Qalibaf, the speaker of parliament, will be forced to make public confessions.Others may be less fortunate. Even after Mr Raisi recants his work as a judge sentencing thousands to death in the late 1980s, many Iranians will still demand his blood.
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