America, China and Russia must agree on mutual restraints before it’s too late
in a recent film, Robert Oppenheimer, the father of the atomic bomb, was haunted by the idea that “I am become Death, destroyer of worlds.” The Cuban missile crisis of 1962 nearly brought annihilation. Fortunately the superpowers stepped back from the brink and agreed on arms-control deals that eventually shrank nuclear stockpiles, and did more besides.
Developed during the cold war, the notion of “mutual assured destruction” involves mind-bending logic. But now deterrence is becoming even more complex because of the prospect of three near-peer nuclear powers. The balance of terror is also being upended by new kinds of missiles and sensors, and by the possibility of artificial intelligence influencing decisions.
Should America match the combined arsenals of Russia and China? Some experts think that, at the very least, it needs more weapons. From 2026 they want to “upload” warheads, currently held in reserve, onto deployed missiles and bombers. Many in Congress are calling for a nuclear sea-launched cruise missile to plug a perceived gap in the escalation ladder. Such moves could make everything worse.
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