Betting markets expect Britain’s prime minister to be ousted before the end of the year
The chatter in Westminster is not if, but when, the prime minister will go. Probabilities derived from wagers placed on Betfair Exchange, a betting market, give a one-in-three chance that she will remain in Downing Street by the new year. Her odds of surviving longer were considerably shortened after she gave a meek press conference on October 14th.
The country now faces the prospect of its fourth prime minister in as many years. Although the Tories enjoy a healthy 71-seat parliamentary majority, they are a fractured party. That may work in Ms Truss’s favour: she may survive longer because the party cannot quickly agree on a successor. The favourite for the job, according to prediction markets, is Rishi Sunak—a former chancellor and runner-up to Ms Truss during the previous leadership election: he has a one-in-three chance.
The next election had been widely expected to take place in May 2024. Betting markets now think there is a one-in-four chance that it could happen sooner. Ms Truss inherited an 11-point polling deficit to the Labour party, but the Conservatives are now more than 25-points adrift—the largest gap since Labour’s landslide win in 1997. Even if a
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