Global burden of diabetes: new study reveals alarming prevalence and projections for 2050 TheLancet diabetes global burden globalburden publichealth globalpublichealth T1D T2D
By Vijay Kumar MalesuJul 18 2023Reviewed by Lily Ramsey, LLM A recent study published in the Lancet provided comprehensive estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden worldwide, highlighting the increasing global health threat and informing policy-making efforts.
Type 1 and 2 diabetes are the most common forms, with distinct risk factors and management strategies. Low-income and middle-income countries bear a disproportionate disease burden due to socioeconomic challenges. Mortality models were created for type 1, type 2, and total diabetes, and deaths without specified types were predicted through a log-linear regression model. Non-fatal outcomes were estimated using various population-representative sources and individual-level data.
The authors compared GBD estimates with forecasted estimates for 2021 and projected trends through 2050. Parameter uncertainty was considered by randomly drawing 100 samples for each age-sex-location-year-specific parameter. 95% uncertainty intervals were calculated from 100 random draws. Age-specific prevalence rates provide crucial insights into the distribution of diabetes across different age groups. The study found that diabetes prevalence exceeded 20% in every age group between 65 and 95 years, with the highest prevalence peaking at 24.4% in the age group of 75 to 79.
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