Europe’s eastern flank has found an unexpected new champion. France, once sceptical about welcoming newcomers to NATO or the EU, has quietly become an advocate for both
”. Even after Russia sent in the tanks, Mr Macron at times seemed as worried about its future security as about Ukraine’s. Yet Europe’s eastern flank has found an unexpected new champion.enlargement, is less visible. A decision on whether to open membership negotiations with Ukraine is not due until December 2023, after an initial discussion in October.
France has traditionally been wary of enlargement, regarding expansion as a threat to its preferred strategy of “deepening” the union and forging a political project. Britain, when still a member, was an arch-enlarger, and thus viewed with suspicion in Paris for seeking to turn Europe into a mere trading zone. In 2019 France vetoed the opening of membership talks with Albania and North Macedonia.
Russia’s war has transformed Mr Macron’s approach. Last year his diplomats worked hard to secure support for the’s decision to grant Ukraine candidate status. France lifted its veto on the bids by Albania and North Macedonia, enabling membership negotiations to begin. The warmth of Mr Macron’s speech in Bratislava dazed central and eastern Europeans, long favourable to a broader. “The question for us is not whether we should enlarge,” he declared, “but how we should do it.
Yet there are reasons to think that this double French shift reflects a geopolitical reassessment. Mr Macron, pro-European to the core, has long been preoccupied by the need to fortify what he calls “European sovereignty”: the continent’s capacity to determine its future amidst great-power rivalry.
None of this means that enlargement will happen any time soon. Membership talks are proceeding grindingly slowly with four Western Balkan countries; Montenegro’s began over a decade ago. Absorbing Ukraine would be complex, long and fraught. But it is now viewed in Paris as a geopolitical imperative. Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group, a consultancy, expectsleaders to open membership talks in December. France alone cannot dictate the choices of the 27-member club.
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