Exploring the effect of herd immunity on monkeypox outbreak sizes medrxivpreprint LSHTM monkeypox herdimmunity
By Neha MathurNov 18 2022Reviewed by Aimee Molineux In a recent study posted to the medRxiv* preprint server, researchers illustrated the baseline trajectory of the monkeypox virus epidemic anticipated under the sole effect of infection-derived or herd immunity.
The current outbreak was novel because most cases were among MSM with no reported exposure to animals or travel history in endemic countries. Although the secondary attack risk , specifically among sexual partners, remains debatable, a wide range of sexual SAR values could have led to sustained outbreaks over MSM sexual contact networks. A heavy-tailed empirical distribution of sexual partners among MSM led to sustained human-to-human transmission in this population while not in others.
The researchers compared model outputs with observed MPXV outbreak data. They identified the period during which reported cases likely peaked in European countries, the US, and Canada. They fitted Gompertz curves to the cumulative reported case count over time in each of the included countries and US states to estimate the cumulative number of MPXV cases per MSM population size by the cumulative incidence proportion at the peak of an epidemic .
Additionally, the researchers noted that many of the observed MPXV epidemics formed a peak when the cumulative number of cases reached ~0.1–0.7% of the estimated sexually active MSM population size. The study model reproduced such patterns, with a SAR between 10 to 30% per sexually-associated contact without accounting for any interventions or behavioral change.
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