From the second world war until Tesla’s arrival, new carmakers that made the transition to global significance were few and far between. Now electrification is changing that, as serious new challengers to the old brands emerge
is second for battery-only cars and is way ahead when counting new-energy vehicles. Of the old guard Volkswagen Group is the boldest electrifier. Yet it is only in third place, with 570,000Electrification is changing carmaking. The old brands have relied on the complexity and cost ofand another $1bn for the presses, paint shop and production lines to scale up a new firm to 150,000-200,000 units a year creates huge barriers to entry.
Forecasts vary widely, but future growth of car sales is likely to be sluggish at best. Pedro Pacheco of Gartner, a consultancy, reckons that sales will eventually return to 2019 levels but they will never go much higher.
In future cars brands will be differentiated mainly by the experience of using them, which is now determined more by their software than their hardware. Software-defined vehicles, which nowadays resemble supercomputers on wheels, will have ever more features and functions such as infotainment, ambient lighting and voice controls, all improved by over-the-air updates after a vehicle has left the factory. That will open up new ways for the car producers to cash in.
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