After suffering an expectedly heavy defeat to the far-right in the EU elections, President Macron shocked France when he dissolved parliament in response.
The far-right National Rally party of Marine Le Pen, led in this election by her 28-year-old protégé Jordan Bardella, had just won a third of the vote, pushing Macron’s party into a humiliating second place with just 15%.
So three years before they are due, France will elect a new parliament in early July. But what is Macron thinking? Why, after being given a bloody nose in one vote, would he immediately call another?Macron’s calculation may be that European elections are different, that people use them as a ‘free vote’ to have a moan about the government, but that when choosing the actual government of the country they will think again.
If France ends up with its first far-right government since Petain during WWII, Macron could be a lame duck for the three long years he will remain in office. But that too may be part of his calculation.Populists thrive in opposition. Governing is much harder. It was not just in France that the far right had a good European election. In Germany the ‘Alternative for Germany’ came second, crushing all three parties that make up the current coalition government.In Italy and Austria populist parties came top. The European Parliament will not be able to ignore them. On immigration and green policies in particular, they will make their presence powerfully felt.
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