While Azerbaijan and the EU had plans to double Azeri gas exports to Europe, the future is uncertain as European buyers have not committed to purchasing the additional gas.
Azerbaijan had agreed with the EU to increase its gas supply to Europe, but European gas buyers have yet to confirm their demand.
Speaking to reporters at a round table meeting in the Turkish capital Ankara on September 14, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar confirmed that his ministry had instructed the operator of the TANAP pipeline which carries Azeri gas across Turkey to Greece, to prepare to expand the pipeline to its full 31 billion cubic metres a year capacity, in order to carry the extra 10 billion cubic metres a year.
"On the European side, I don't think they are giving a full-fledged long-term commitment for the off-taking of this additional gas. Without this commitment, I don't think the expansion is possible," he added, explaining that without commitments to purchase the extra gas, even the companies operating Azerbaijan's gas fields won't be able to invest to expand production to the extent needed to produce that extra gas.
The wording however was not that of a formal commitment, signalling only that the two sides had agreed to"aspire" to support doubling Azeri gas exports to Europe to"at least 20 billion cubic meters of gas annually by 2027, in accordance with commercial viability and market demand." Current production capacity on the BP-operated Shah Deniz gas field which supplies the bulk of Azerbaijan's gas exports, is not able to supply the full 10 billion cubic metres of extra gas required. in two deep reservoirs which may be able to provide more gas but it is unclear whether they will find commercially exploitable volumes.
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