Over a year into the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation, the state of America’s labour market has taken on extraordinary importance
Initially the covid-19 pandemic was to blame for many of the workforce gaps, since people were less inclined to venture out for employment. Now, as recent data releases make clear, the economy itself is the source of the strains. Consider a wide range of measures. All point to a slight softening in the labour market over the past year. Yet all are still, to a remarkable degree,For every unemployed person in America, there are 1.
Will these gains survive when labour shortages feed through to prices? Hourly earnings in June rose at an annualised pace of 4.4%, consistent with an inflation rate roughly twice the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. Alternative measures suggest upward pressure may be even greater. A tracker by the Fed’s Atlanta branch points to annualised wage growth of around 6% this year.
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