In the first days of the COVID-19 pandemic, many of us assumed we would return to our usual routines in a few weeks. Instead, restrictions on group gatherings and businesses stretched on for months. Did they continue to save lives? In a new study, available on the SSRN Electronic Journal server, Yale SOM's Matthew Spiegel examines how the effectiveness of restrictions evolved over time.
in the U.S., media commentators worried that lockdown policies were chafing, and that a critical mass of weary rule-breakers could render such policies ineffective.
Spiegel says he believes that these policies backfired by pushing people to embrace behavior even riskier than had been disallowed—for example, a person might have invited 15 friends over to their house because an outdoor baseball game was canceled.effectiveness a step further: some of the policies may have helped at first—but did that helpfulness last?
In line with commentators' early fears, Spiegel found that, indeed, the initial effects of pandemic restrictions did become less potent as they persisted—suggesting that people's resolve to follow the rules diminished over time. This was true whether the policies were associated with lower future COVID-19 deaths or higher future deaths; over time, their effectiveness moved to zero.
"But that tells me something." he says."Fatigue is not related to the local economy and what's happening there—but to other forces."remained cooperative with the lockdown policies for a longer duration than those in rural areas. He hopes future research can untangle the reasons why, and illuminate the factors contributing to better adherence among people in more densely populated regions.
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