One area that could provide clues is commodities, namely energy, food and metals. The country would want to secure adequate supplies of each before launching an invasion
would be hard to hide. But before troops begin to muster, other actions, of an economic and financial nature, might signal China’s intent.
Energy is a good place to start. China imports nearly three-quarters of the oil it uses. The substance accounts for only 20% of the country’s energy use, but it would be crucial to any war effort. Military vehicles run on it, as do the lorries that transport supplies.
The firms signed contracts that locked in near-term supplies, breaking from China’s past practice of focusing on future deliveries. Nine of the 20 state-owned outfits involved in the purchasing had never bought gas before. China may simply have decided to stock up before prices rose even higher . But Messrs Collins and Miles say the deals raise questions about China’s complicity with Russia.
Some of this activity may be hard to see. The size of China’s grain hoard, for example, is hotly debated. When it comes to metals, the challenge may be even greater. Items such as beryllium and niobium are used to make military gear. Platinum and palladium go into engines. How much China has of these metals, most of which are imported, is difficult to say because its consumption patterns are unclear.
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