The military drills are probably better understood as an extension of an intimidation campaign, one that long preceded Nancy Pelosi’s trip, than a run-up to war
in shorts and sandals, gathered on China’s Pingtan island. Some clutched umbrellas to ward off the sun. Those with cameras tended to point them at the blue waters of the Haitan Strait, which divides Pingtan from Fujian, a province on the country’s east coast. Their holiday snaps on August 4th captured military helicopters swarming overhead and rockets streaking into the sky. These were some of the first missiles fired from the Chinese mainland towards the waters off Taiwan in 26 years.
In the first days of the crisis in July 1995, China fired just six missiles, one of which malfunctioned. On August 4th it fired 16, according to China’s defence ministry, as well as many more small rockets from long-range artillery. Japan said that at least five of the missiles landed within its exclusive economic zone . Of those, four had flown over Taiwan, including one that went over Taipei, its capital.
However, they also note that the PLA is improving in all these areas and could assemble an invasion force much faster than in the past, shrinking the time Taiwan has to mobilise. As Russia’s war in Ukraine demonstrates, what ultimately matters is how Xi Jinping, China’s leader, and his generals assess their own strength.
There are also concerns over the vulnerability of Taiwan’s outlying islands. On the day of Ms Pelosi’s departure Taiwanese troops on Kinmen, once known as Quemoy, a group of islands just 10km from China’s coast, fired flares at Chinese drones overhead. The next day Chinese missiles were fired near Taiwan’s Matsu archipelago, parts of which are less than 20km from the mainland. The Penghu islands, closer to Taiwan proper, are another potential target.
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