The Bank of England is worried about high inflation becoming embedded in the economy. But it usually prefers to pull policy levers slowly and thoughtfully—the next increase is likely to be a wrench
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskAccording to Moneyfacts, a data firm, between September 23rd and October 4th over 40% of mortgage products disappeared from the market as lenders avoided getting on the wrong side of spiking interest rates. Demand has surged for those products that remained available. Paul Timmins of Quick Mortgages, a broker, says that most customers used to get in touch perhaps a month before their fixed-rate mortgage was due to expire.
The risk is that this jump in rates will set off a nasty downward spiral. Some people may be unable to keep repaying their mortgages, prompting a rise in repossessions. Mr Wishart predicts arrears to rise from 0.7% of mortgages now to 1.6% in 2024. Rather than falling behind on dearer mortgage payments, other households will pull back on spending elsewhere. Prospective buyers will find themselves unable to afford what they could before.
Even so, higher interest rates will hurt. Mr Wishart expects average mortgage costs to grow from 2% of total household income to over 5% by mid-2024. That shock will be concentrated on the third of British households that have an outstanding mortgage on a home they own. Neal Hudson of Residential Analysts, a consultancy, reckons that currently around 300,000 mortgages each quarter are coming to the end of their fixed-rate period, rising to 375,000 in the second quarter of next year.
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