Elite-bashers across Europe still have many political victories left in them. But what Petr Pavel’s triumph in the Czech Republic shows is that they will suffer plenty of drubbings too
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskin the past two decades has been how populists have gatecrashed what used to be a cushy, mostly liberal, cartel. Elections in Europe once typically pitted centre-right candidates against centre-left ones. Since the turn of the century, but especially from about 2015, candidates from the post-fascist fringe and the still-Marxist one went from being marginal to central.
The Czech result shows that populism’s bubble can be deflated. Mr Babis had already been ousted as prime minister in 2021, albeit only because his top-ranked party could not find partners to form a coalition. The presidency for the past decade had been in the hands of Milos Zeman. He was once a centre-left premier but his stint as head of state included racist and homophobic rhetoric—not to mention support for Russia. Predictably, he had supported Mr Babis.
It is too soon to say that the populist bubble has burst. But the sense of inevitability of populism’s progress has faded. Mr Babis’s defeat comes after the recent political exits of Trumpy politicians in Slovenia and Bulgaria , not to mention America and Brazil. Central and eastern Europe has been particularly fertile ground for populists. Voters have felt the whiplash of rapid economic and social change since the fall of communism in 1989.
Populists are facing headwinds for several reasons. One is the war in Ukraine. It has tainted Vladimir Putin, the politician many European populists hold in highest esteem. The war also fractured an alliance between Poland and Hungary . Leaving theis seen by ever more voters as a mistake after Britain’s wretched display. And the price tag of populism has become clearer.
Even when populists win it is not clear that their policies do. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni is not only in power, her party is surging in the polls. That is not an indication of populism’s success, however: Ms Meloni has governed broadly as a centrist in her first hundred days. She has stayed away from her counterparts in Poland and Hungary, favouring meetings with France’s Emmanuel Macron and the European Commission’s boss, Ursula von der Leyen, instead.
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