Asian housing markets are looking precarious

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Asian housing markets are looking precarious
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House prices in the countries and cities once known as Asian Tigers have surged. What will that mean for growth in 2023? WorldAhead

By Mike Bird: Asia business and finance editor, The Economist, Singaporebig brother, the colossal housing market in mainland China tends to absorb most of the attention when it comes to the risk of property-related blow-ups in Asia. But excesses in other parts of the region—particularly its most impressive economic success stories—should also spark serious concern.

Rock-bottom global interest rates have helped drive price rises. Most banks in Europe and America were hobbled for years by the financial crisis of 2007-09, while many in East Asia were far less affected. Rapid Chinese growth also helped the country’s neighbours grow more rapidly in the years that followed.

But the forces that drove housing booms in East Asia are abating, and rapidly so. Inflation is rising in Asia, though to lower levels than in much of the West. Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan, all have currencies either pegged to the dollar directly, or carefully managed by the central bank. Interest rates have been raised rapidly by the region’s central banks and monetary authorities, to keep in step with the Federal Reserve’s own rapid increases.

Some countries are also losing one of their lines of defence against financial threats. Both South Korea and Taiwan, with their exports of semiconductors, electronics and industrial goods, typically boast large current-account surpluses. But the surging price of imported energy has erased those surpluses.

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