Are Brazil’s pollsters right about the presidential election?

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Are Brazil’s pollsters right about the presidential election?
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All expect President Jair Bolsonaro to lose, but they differ about the size of his defeat

Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskOver the next few days 440 Datafolha workers in 332 municipalities planned to speak to some 6,800 voters. Within hours of the final interviews, the results would be announced on a nightly news programme watched by a third of Brazilian households.

The wide divergence in the polls has led to debates about methodology that echo those that have taken place in the United States and elsewhere. Stakes are high. If Lula’s victory is even as big as Datafolha suggests, Mr Bolsonaro’s bogus claims of fraud will convince fewer people. Most firms admit that they could do a better job of estimating how many people will not vote. Voting is obligatory in Brazil, but fines are low and abstention can be as high as 20%. While pollsters know that non-voters tend to be poorer and less educated, which could hurt Lula, they have yet to make use of “likely-voter models”, which give low-voting groups less weight, says Felipe Nunes, boss of Quaest, a six-year-old firm that conducts in-person polls.

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