Adding up the fiscal drag from ageing, energy and defence

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Adding up the fiscal drag from ageing, energy and defence
Danmark Seneste Nyt,Danmark Overskrifter
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In all the countries in our analysis the tax burden, as a percentage of GDP, is already at or close to its historical maximum. Funding extra spending for future pressures purely from higher revenues would take taxes to unprecedented levels

Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskAfter Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, European governments once again promised to reach the target. The Netherlands now says it will hit 2% in 2025; Italy will do so by 2028. Germany says its spending will exceed the 2% target at an unspecified date. In Britain, which spent 2.2% ofSuch pledges create more long-term pressure on government budgets, on top of ageing and net zero.has added them all up.

. That is a manageable figure, but a painful one. In all the countries in our analysis the tax burden, as a percentage of, is already at or close to its historical maximum. Funding this extra annual spending purely from higher revenues would take taxes to unprecedented levels. The alternative of debt financing may work for a while, especially in Germany, which has the lowest debt-to-ratios among big European economies. However, this is not a sustainable solution, because the fiscal pressure will last for decades. Eventually room to borrow more will be used up, even when interest rates are low. Moreover, the pressure on budgets will continue after 2030 as Europe goes on ageing.

In Italy there is not even room for manoeuvre in the near term. It already has huge net debts of nearly 140% of. At an average financing cost of around 4.5% , inflation around 2% and economic growth around 1% it needs a budget surplus before interest of nearly 2% ofjust to stop its debt growing faster than its economy. A financing cost of 5% would push the required surplus to over 2.

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