Taiwanese voters give the Democratic Progressive Party a kicking
At a time of high tension across the Taiwan Strait—following an unprecedented series ofin August—these were striking results. Yet they probably do not signal change in Taiwanese sentiment towards China, which has never played much of a role in local politics. As in so many countries, voters mainly seemed anxious about the economy and aggrieved by the coronavirus-related strictures that their leaders had placed on it.
flourished during the pandemic, many small businesses were hard hit by rules banning indoor dining and entertainment.’s local patronage networks—developed during its 40 years of single-party rule—were well placed to exploit anti-incumbency sentiment. The opposition party sensibly did not project a unified campaign message. Its candidates mostly talked about their individual records or the government’s failures.
If the results were driven by domestic concerns, they could have geopolitical consequences. China does not trust the. The election may persuade it that Taiwan is not drifting inexorably towards independence. China praised the results, claiming in a statement that they “revealed that mainstream public opinion on the island is for peace, stability and a good life.”
Ms Tsai, a skilled diplomat attuned to American feeling on Taiwan, will now take a back seat as her party looks for a candidate for the presidential election due in 2024. It will probably be her vice-president, William Lai, a more forthright advocate of independence. Thewould naturally hope to deny him. Yet it may need to adopt a more popular position on China before it can challenge for national power. Its recent triumph may make that less likely.
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