Satellite data hints at the scale of their deception
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskBut in fact, Mussolini’s trains often ran late—and dictators’ economic stewardship may not be as effective as they claim. New research finds that autocrats greatly overstate their countries’ economic growth.
In a peer-reviewed article that will be published this month, Luis Martinez, an economist, investigated dictators’growth figures. To do so, he first obtained data on the brightness of countries’ lights at night, as measured by satellites, a well-known proxy for. He combined it with data from Freedom House, a think-tank, on countries’ political systems.
Curious patterns in the data suggest manipulation as the cause. Mr Martinez found that the mismatch between satellite anddata did not appear in dictatorships until they were too rich to receive some types of aid: only showing up when governments would not forfeit money. The irregularities were most prevalent in the parts offigures that are easiest to manipulate such as investment and government spending, and was bigger when these countries’ growth was low compared with others’.
Autocrats’ subordinates face similar incentives. In a related study Jeremy Wallace, a researcher, found misreporting by Chinese provinces, too. As he notes, a leaked American diplomatic cable from 2007 revealed the view of Li Keqiang, the prime minister, then a provincial party secretary. He had said, with a smile, thatLike their leaders, citizens in dictatorships often assume they are being lied to. Outsiders should be similarly sceptical.
This article appeared in the Graphic detail section of the print edition under the headline"Shining light on lies"Discover stories from this section and more in the list of contents
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