On Christmas Eve the small Pacific-island state of Fiji witnessed an opposition leader being sworn in as prime minister for only the third time in its history
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskMr Rabuka emerged as the victor of the election held on December 14th by the narrowest of margins. The FijiFirst party of the outgoing prime minister, Frank Bainimarama , won the most seats, with 26 of the 55 contested. Mr Rabuka’s People’s Alliance party secured only 21. But Mr Bainimarama, who ruled Fiji for 16 years, failed to secure a majority.
Mr Bainimarama called on several senior officials, including the powerful police commissioner, to refuse the new government’s demand that they resign. Having nominated his chief henchman and former finance minister, Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, to represent the opposition on the important Constitutional Offices Commission, Mr Bainimarama then rescinded that nomination on January 4th.
Even if Mr Bainimarama restrains himself, there may be political trouble ahead. The constitution that the army has sworn to uphold was imposed on Fiji’s 900,000 people by Mr Bainimarama after he seized power and abrogated the previous version. Much of the incoming government’s platform, including reforms to the country’s anti-corruption commission and the restoration of the Great Council of Chiefs, might require amendments to it.
Politics aside, Mr Rabuka inherits an economy stricken by covid-19. It shrank by more than a fifth over the course of 2020 and 2021, before somewhat rebounding last year when tourists began returning. During the pandemic the FijiFirst government had to bail out the national carrier, Fiji Airways. And the war in Ukraine has since made the public finances even worse, by raising the price of energy and of many basic foodstuffs, which Fiji imports.
Yet the most pressing risk is of another coup. In the uncertain aftermath of the election, the police commissioner called in the armed forces, citing a risk of ethnic unrest. Their commander, Major-General Jone Kalouniwai, obliged, but with only a token deployment. Yet many think Mr Bainimarama is intent on goading him to intervene more forcefully—on the pretext that Mr Rabuka is already violating the constitution.
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